Case growth analysis to inform local response to COVID-19 epidemic in a diverse U.S community.

Early detection of new outbreak waves is critical for effective and sustained response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We conducted a growth rate analysis using local community and inpatient records from seven hospital systems to characterize distinct phases in SARS-CoV-2 outbreak waves in the Greater Houston area. We determined the transition times from rapid spread of infection in the community to surge in the number of inpatients in local hospitals. We identified 193,237 residents who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 via molecular testing from April 8, 2020 to June 30, 2021, and 30,031 residents admitted within local healthcare institutions with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, including emergency cases. We detected two distinct COVID-19 waves: May 12, 2020-September 6, 2020 and September 27, 2020-May 15, 2021; each encompassed four growth phases: lagging, exponential/rapid growth, deceleration, and stationary/linear. Our findings showed that, during early stages of the pandemic, the surge in the number of daily cases in the community preceded that of inpatients admitted to local hospitals by 12-36 days. Rapid decline in hospitalized cases was an early indicator of transition to deceleration in the community. Our real-time analysis informed local pandemic response in one of the largest U.S. metropolitan areas, providing an operationalized framework to support robust real-world surveillance for outbreak preparedness.

Trends and Correlates of Breakthrough Infections With SARS-CoV-2.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) delta variant has been hypothesized to decrease the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines. Factors associated with infections with SARS-CoV-2 after vaccination are unknown. In this observational cohort study, we examined two groups in Harris County, Texas: (1) individuals with positive Nucleic Acid Amplification test between 12/14/2020 and 9/30/2021 and (2) the subset of individuals fully vaccinated in the same time period. Infected individuals were classified as a breakthrough if their infection occurred 14 days after their vaccination had been completed. Among fully vaccinated individuals, demographic and vaccine factors associated with breakthrough infections were assessed. Of 146,731 positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, 7.5% were breakthrough infections. Correlates of breakthrough infection included young adult age, female, White race, and receiving the Janssen vaccine, after adjustments including the amount of community spread at the time of infection. Vaccines remained effective in decreasing the probability of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. The data indicate that increased vaccine booster uptake would help decrease new infections.

A Population-Based Approach to Mapping Vulnerability to Diabetes.

Of the 382 million people worldwide with diabetes, and if current trends continue, nearly half a billion people worldwide will have diabetes by 2035. Two-thirds of current diabetics are living in urban centers and the urban concentration of individuals with diabetes is on the rise. The problem is that in the absence of widespread clinical testing, there is no reliable way to predict which segments of the population are the most vulnerable to the onset of diabetes. Knowing who the most vulnerable are, and where they live, can guide the efficient allocation of prevention resources. Toward this end, we introduce the concept of composite vulnerability, which includes both group and individual-level attributes, and we provide a demonstration of its application to a large urban setting. The components of composite vulnerability are estimated using a novel, population-based, procedure that relies on sample survey data and nonparametric statistical techniques. First, cluster analysis identified three multivariate profiles of adult residents with type 2 diabetes, based on 35 socioeconomic indicators. Second, the undiagnosed population was screened for vulnerability based on their resemblance or fit to these multivariate profiles. Geographic neighborhoods with high concentrations of "vulnerables" could then be identified. In parallel, recursive partitioning found the best predictors of type 2 diabetes in this urban population, combined them with indicators of disadvantage, and applied them to residents in the selected neighborhoods to establish relative levels of composite vulnerability. Neighborhoods with high concentrations of residents manifesting composite vulnerability can be easily identified for targeting community-based prevention measures.

The Association Between PM2.5 and Ozone and the Prevalence of Diabetes Mellitus in the United States, 2002 to 2008.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between air pollution and diabetes prevalence in the United States, 2002 to 2008. METHODS: Annual average particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone concentrations were calculated using daily county-level data from the CDC's Tracking Network. Individual-level outcome and covariate data were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System for 862,519 individuals. We used Poisson regression analyses to examine associations between each air pollutant (per 10-unit increase) with diabetes, including regional sub-analyses. Analyses were adjusted for year, age, sex, race, ethnicity, education, income, smoking status, body mass index, exercise, and asthma. RESULTS: Positive associations between each pollutant and diabetes were found (PM2.5: prevalence ratio [PR] = 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.03, 1.17; ozone: PR = 1.06; 95% CI = 1.03, 1.09). There was limited evidence of effect modification by region. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions to reduce ambient air pollution may help alleviate the diabetes burden in the US.

Economic Burden of Hearing Loss for the U.S. Military: A Proposed Framework for Estimation.

The goal of this multiphased research is to develop methods to comprehensively determine the economic impact of hearing impairment and noise-induced hearing injury among active duty U.S. Service Members. Several steps were undertaken to develop a framework and model for economic burden analysis: (1) a literature review identifying studies reporting the cost of health conditions and injuries in the Department of Defense, (2) consultation with a panel of subject matter experts who reviewed these cost items, and (3) discussions with DoD data stewards and review of relevant data dictionaries and databases. A Markov model was developed to represent the cumulative economic effect of events along the career span, such as retraining after hearing impairment and injury, by synthesizing inputs from various sources. The model, as developed and proposed in this study, will be a valuable decision-making tool for the DoD to identify high-risk groups, take proactive measures, and develop focused education, customized equipping, and return-to-duty and reintegration programs, thereby maximizing the retention of skilled, experienced, and mission-ready Service Members.

Predictors of Serious Psychological Distress in an Urban Population.

While there are state and national estimates of serious psychological distress (SPD), these are not useful for targeting local mental health interventions or for addressing the needs of sub-populations at increased risk for SPD. This cross-sectional study uses data from the population-based 2010 Health of Houston Survey (n = 5,116) to examine (1) the prevalence of SPD and its determinants in Houston area and (2) predictors of the utilization of mental health services among people with SPD. The prevalence of SPD among the Houston area adult population was 7 %, more than twice the national average. Correlates of SPD included: being female, under 65, lacking emotional support, smoking, having poor health status and financial distress. The odds of utilizing health services by those with SPD were affected by financial distress, insurance, employment and perceived need for services, among other factors. Interventions should be tailored to mitigate risk factors for SPD and to improve access to mental health services in the SPD sub-population.

The Department of Defense Epidemiologic and Economic Burden of Hearing Loss study.

Although studies have examined the relation between military-related noise and hearing, comprehensive data to calculate rates of hearing loss across all Services and to determine economic impact are lacking. The goal of the multiphase Department of Defense (DoD) Epidemiologic and Economic Burden of Hearing Loss (DEEBoHL) project is to examine rates of hearing impairment and noise-induced hearing injury, relevant noise exposures, and to determine the economic burden of these outcomes to the DoD and Service Members. The DoD Hearing Center of Excellence is supporting the following Phase I specific aims, among active duty Service Members to (1) calculate rates of hearing impairment and noise-induced hearing injury, and (2) develop a framework for the DoD to conduct comprehensive economic burden studies for hearing impairment and noise-induced hearing injury. The study is led by a multidisciplinary team from The University of Texas School of Public Health, The University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio, and The Geneva Foundation, with guidance from experts who make up the study advisory board. In this article, we focus on an overview of the DEEBoHL study, the methods for the first aim of this effort, and describe future plans for the study.

Cumulative cancer risk from air pollution in Houston: disparities in risk burden and social disadvantage.

Air toxics are of particular concern in Greater Houston, home to one of the world's largest petrochemical complexes and a quarter ofthe nation's refining capacity. Much of this complex lies along a navigable ship channel that flows 50 miles from east of the central business district through Galveston Bay and into the Gulf of Mexico. Numerous communities, including both poor and affluent neighborhoods, are located in close proximity to the 200 facilities along this channel. Our aim is to examine the spatial distribution of cumulative, air-pollution-related cancer risks in Houston and Harris County, with particular emphasis on identifying ethnic, economic, and social disparities. We employ exposure estimates from NATA-1999 and census data to assess whether the cumulative cancer risks from air toxics in Houston (and Harris County) fall disproportionately on certain ethnicities and on the socially and economically disadvantaged. The cancer risk burden across Harris County census tracts increases with the proportion of residents who are Hispanic and with key indicators of relative social disadvantage. Aggregate disadvantage grows at each higher level of cancer risk. The highest cancer risk in Harris County is concentrated along a corridor flanking the ship channel. These high-risk neighborhoods, however, vary markedly in relative disadvantage, as well as in emission source mix. Much of the risk they face appears to be driven by only a few hazardous air pollutants. Results provide evidence of risk disparities from hazardous air pollution based on ethnicity and social disadvantage. At the highest levels of risk the pattern is more complex, arguing for a neighborhood level of analysis, especially when proximity to high-emissions industries is a substantial contributor to cumulative cancer risk.

Comparative assessment of air pollution-related health risks in Houston.

BACKGROUND: Airborne emissions from numerous point, area, and mobile sources, along with stagnant meteorologic conditions, contribute to frequent episodes of elevated air pollution in Houston, Texas. To address this problem, decision makers must set priorities among thousands of individual air pollutants as they formulate effective and efficient mitigation strategies. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to compare and rank relative health risks of 179 air pollutants in Houston using an evidence-based approach supplemented by the expert judgment of a panel of academic scientists. METHODS: Annual-average ambient concentrations by census tract were estimated from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National-scale Air Toxics Assessment and augmented with measured levels from the Houston monitoring network. Each substance was assigned to one of five risk categories (definite, probable, possible, unlikely, uncertain) based on how measured or monitored concentrations translated into comparative risk estimates. We used established unit risk estimates for carcinogens and/or chronic reference values for noncarcinogens to set thresholds for each category. Assignment to an initial risk category was adjusted, as necessary, based on expert judgment about the quality and quantity of information available. RESULTS: Of the 179 substances examined, 12 (6.7%) were deemed definite risks, 9 (5.0%) probable risks, 24 (13.4%) possible risks, 16 (8.9%) unlikely risks, and 118 (65.9%) uncertain risks. CONCLUSIONS: Risk-based priority setting is an important step in the development of cost-effective solutions to Houston's air pollution problem.

Comparison of two management strategies for Helicobacter pylori treatment: clinical study and cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: First-line proton pump inhibitor-based triple and quadruple therapies for Helicobacter pylori eradication present similar levels of efficacy. Cross-over treatment (quadruple following triple failure, and triple following quadruple failure) seems the most sensible approach to treatment failures, but the two strategies -'quadruple first' versus 'triple first'- have not been previously compared. The aims of our study were to assess the usefulness and the cost-effectiveness of the two treatment strategies. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Forty-nine out of 344 patients included in a previous study comparing triple therapy - 7 days of omeprazole, amoxicillin and clarithromycin twice a day - with quadruple therapy - 7 days of omeprazole twice a day, plus tetracycline, metronidazole and bismuth subcitrate three times a day - failed initial treatment and were assigned to cross-over therapy. Cure was determined by urea breath test. A decision analysis was performed to compare the two eradication strategies. RESULTS: Intention to treat cure rates were 46% (10/22 patients; 95% CI 24-68%) for second-line triple therapy and 63% (17/27 patients; 95% CI 42-81%) for second-line quadruple therapy. Per protocol cure rates were 71% and 85%, respectively. Intention to treat cure rates were 87% (95% CI 81-92%) for the 'triple first' versus 86% (95% CI 80-91%) for the 'quadruple first' strategy (p = .87). The 'quadruple first' strategy was more cost-effective. The incremental cost of 'triple first' strategy per person was 19 in the low-cost area and 65 US dollars in the high-cost area. CONCLUSIONS: The effectiveness of 'triple first' and 'quadruple first' strategies is similar, although the latter seems slightly more cost-effective.